Ernesto is coming to dinner – well, maybe. Most recent National Hurricane Center updates say that Hurricane Ernesto has top winds of 75 mph at 8 a.m. ET, with higher gusts. This is the first tropical storm of the year to be upgraded to hurricane status, according to a Bloomberg report.
An advisory from the hurricane center said conditions in the Gulf were “highly conducive” for the “rapid intensification in the near term and for the potential development of a major hurricane in the longer term.”
Hurricane Ernesto 5 Day Projection
Earlier fears that Ernesto might barrel toward New Orleans, near the anniversary of Katrina’s landfall, were eased with the latest advisory, but it was bad news for residents of central and northern Florida. Ernesto is now forecast to make landfall as a major category 3 storm on the coast of Florida, move northeastward and still be a category 1 storm well inland.
A tropical storm watch may be issued for the western portion of the Florida Keys sometime Sunday, according to the discussion notes issued by the hurricane center.
Just how powerful the hurricane becomes will be “highly dependent on the exact track that Ernesto takes due to land interaction with Haiti and Cuba,” the center said. “If Ernesto doesn’t linger over Cuba for more than 24 hours, then major hurricane strength seems likely” by Thursday or Friday, the hurricane center said.
As of 8 a.m. ET Sunday, the storm was centered about 115 miles south-southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti, and it was moving at 9 mph toward the northwest, the center said.
Additional Hurricane Resources
Further information regarding the hurricane may be obtained from the following recommended sources:
- Weather Street
- Weather.com
- The Disaster Center
- National Weather Service – Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Archive
- NOAA National Weather Service Hurricane Awareness Information
- National Hurricane Center at the National Weather Service
RSS Feeds to Track this Storm
NOAA Hurricane Ernesto RSS Feed
Source:
CNN.com – Hurricane Ernesto on track to hit Florida – Aug 27, 2006
Technorati Tags: hurricane, ernesto, florida, tropical storm, miami, pending doom
11AM Sunday August 27 Update
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES… 185 KM…SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 205 MILES…330 KM… SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING …AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF CUBA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI…THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
HURRICANE ERNESTO ADVISORY — 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
…ERNESTO MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI…MAY HAVE WEAKENED BUT BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…CUBA… THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO…THE FLORIDA
KEYS…SOUTHERN FLORIDA…AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO …SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Storm Update
AT 200 PM EDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES…165 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 165 MILES…260 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA MONDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE
THAT ERNESTO MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH…AND IF THIS IS CONFIRMED THE SYSTEM WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES…150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI…THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC…AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION…17.8 N…73.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH